2010-10-31
Here are the current odds from the Mike Caro Brain Trust:
Odds of Democrats maintaining control of the United States House of Representatives following the November 2 elections:
220-to-1 against (2010-11-01 at 9:45 a.m. Central Daylight Time)
NOTE: The update above reflects unusually significant shifts to Republicans in overnight polling. The previous number included the likelihood of some final-hour tightening, which is normal. Gallup, CNN, and other polls just released suggest the opposite is happening — and in a major way.
115-to-1 against (2010-10-31 at 4:25 p.m. Central Daylight Time)
Examination
It would require a monumental news event in the final days to prevent the Republicans from taking control of the House. In the absence of a “game-changer” event, Republican control is almost assured.
Of the 435 seats in the House, 236 are in the hands of Democrats and 178 are in the hands of Republicans. Two are currently unfilled.
All 435 seats will be decided by elections on Tuesday, November 2 — as they are every two years. To hold a majority, a party must capture 218, and we project that the Republicans are sure to achieve that, unless there are earthshaking happenings that dictate otherwise. — MC
